Homepage of Jochen Hinkel

Homepage of Jochen Hinkel


February 5, 2014

Current Positions

Contact Details

Tel: +49 30-2060738-20
Fax: +49 30-2060738-33
Mail: hinkel(at)globalclimateforum.org
Web: http://www.globalclimateforum.org/index.php?id=jochen-hinkel
Global Climate Forum e.V. (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany

Research Interests

My research aims at understanding the governance of human-environment interactions in social-ecological systems (SESs) in the context of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, with a particular focus on coastal and natural resource systems.

Specifically, I am interested in collective action problems related to adaptation such as the provisioning of collective goods that protect against climate hazards (e.g., dikes to protect against flooding) and the management of resources that are threaten by climate change (e.g., water, land and infrastructure).

I also maintain the DIVA Model (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) and coordinate its development. DIVA is a global, integrated model of coastal systems developed collaboratively by a number of European research institutions including Southampton University, Kiel University and the Global Climate Forum. DIVA assess biophysical and socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise and socio-economic development taking into account coastal erosion (both direct and indirect), coastal flooding (including rivers), wetland change and salinity intrusion into deltas and estuaries as well as adaptation in terms of raising dikes and nourishing beaches.

Current projects and research activities

Since 2013

RISES-AM (Quantifying projected impacts under high end climate change). An internationally important EU funded project to better understand the impacts of climate change for high rises in global means sea levels, and potential ways to adapt.

Since 2012

Integration of climatic variability and change into national strategies to implement the ICZM Protocol in the Mediterranean, funded by Global Environmental Facility. This project assists Mediterranean countries to implement the ICZM Protocol by facilitating region wide coordination mechanisms, national actions and the development of tools to address climate variability in the Mediterranean. The GCF contributes to these objectives through assessments of coastal vulnerability in Croatia and Tunisia.

Since 2012

ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). ISI-MIP is a community-driven modelling effort with the goal of providing cross-sectoral global impact assessments and impact model comparisons, based on common climate (RCP – Representative Concentration Pathways) and socio-economic (SSP – Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenarios. Impacts and uncertainties for different sectors and from multiple impact models are explored and policy relevant metrics are deduced. In this context, GCF applies the DIVA Model to assess global scale impacts of future warming and associated sea-level rise on the risk of coastal flooding.

Since 2011

Habilitation. I am writing my Habilitation thesis on human-environment interactions in the Division of Resource Economics at the Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Humboldt University, Berlin.

Since 2011

IMPACT2C (Quantifying projected impacts under 2C warming, funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme. This project assesses impacts and adaptation under low-stabilisation scenarios. I am involved in the coastal assessment for Europe and the Maldives.

Since 2011

PROVIA (Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) Guidance, funded by UNEP. PROVIA is a global initiative which aims to provide direction and coherence at the international level for research on climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA). Towards this end, PROVIA is revising the IPCC Guidelines (1994) and the UNEP Handbook (1996) to produce a guidance on tools and research methodologies for VIA. I am the coordinating lead author of this guidance.

Since 2008

SES Club. The SES Club is a small group of European and North American scholars that collectively develops a common framework for the rigorous analysis of social-ecological and socio-technical systems. The group was led by Elinor Ostrom at Indiana University and involves, amongst others, GCF, Delft University of Technology, Humboldt University Berlin, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Stockholm Resilience Center. I initiated, together with Elinor Ostrom, the first meeting of this group.

Since 2001

DIVA model (Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment). DIVA is a global, integrated model of coastal systems developed collaboratively by several European research institutes for assessing biophysical and socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise and socio-economic development taking into account adaptation in terms of raising dikes and nourishing beaches. I lead the model development and maintain its code.

Completed projects (selection)

2011 - 2012

Costs of Adaptation to Rising Coastal Water Levels for People’s Republic of China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, funded by the Asian Development Bank. I have done the simulations of costs and impacts.

2010

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC): Aggregate Track Infrastructure - Coastal Component, funded by the World Bank. The project developed a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing climate negotiations and adaptation decision making. I was involved in the coastal assessment.

2010

Economic Analysis of Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change in Senegal and Gambia, funded by the World Bank. The project assessed coastal impacts, vulnerability and adaptation using the DIVA Model for Senegal and Gambia.

2010

Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Areas of India, funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. The project developed a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of Indian States to climate change.

2010 - 2013

MEDIATION (Methodology for Effective Decision-making on Impacts and AdaptaTION), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme (project number 2444012). The objective of MEDIATION is to develop an integrated methodology for assessing climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. I lead the development of the integrated methodology.

2009 - 2010

Vulnerability Mapping, funded by European Topic Centers at the German and European Environmental Agency. An assessment of the vulnerabilities of several European sectors was carried out and incorporated in the 2010 State of the Environment Report published by the European Environmental Agency. I carried out the coastal assessment.

2009

Preliminary assessment and road-map for the elaboration of Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators at regional level, funded by European Commission’s DG Environment (Reference: ENV.G.1/ETU/2008/0092r). The project conducted a review of vulnerability indicators from a theoretical and methodological perspective and developed and applied a process for the construction of vulnerability indicators.

2008 - 2011

CLIMATECOST (the Full Cost of Climate Change), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 7th Framework Programme. The project is a study of the economics of climate change to inform policy on long-term targets, the economic costs of inaction, and the costs and benefits of adaptation. The project is quantifying the costs of climate change impacts, as compared with the costs and benefits of adaptation. I was involved in the coastal work.

2005 - 2009

ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies - Supporting European Climate Policy), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (Project Reference: 18476). I co-lead the ADAM Workpackage A1 that developed a formal framework of CCIVA concepts, conducted a meta-analysis of European CCIVA studies, explored how barriers to adaptation could be overcome through social learning, and developed a Digital Adaptation Compendium.

2005 - 2009

FAVAIA (Formal Approaches to Vulnerability that Inform Adaptation). FAVAIA was a joint research project between PIK and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) which aimed at alleviating some of the conceptual difficulties present in the field of CCIVA by formalising vulnerability and related concepts. I lead the PIK work.

2005 - 2009

NeWater (New Approaches to Adaptive Water Management under Uncertainty), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the Sixth Framework Programme (contract no 511179). I was involved in a case study of range land management in Lesotho and in comparing and improving indicator and model-based methods for assessing water vulnerability.

2001 - 2004

DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Sea-Level Rise), funded by European Commission’s DG Research under the 5th Framework Programme (Contract No. EVK2-2000-22024). The project developed the DIVA model. I coordinated the development.

Publications

Journal articles

Arnell, N. W., S. Brown, S. Gosling, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. Lowe, T. Osborn, R. J. Nicholls, and P. Zelazowski (2014b). Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact. In: Climatic Change. Published online: 21 January 2014. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7.

Binder, C. R., J. Hinkel, C. Pahl-Wostl, and P. Bots (2014). Comparison of frameworks for analysing social-ecological systems. In: Ecology and Society. Special Feature on the Ostrom (2009) framework for analysing social-ecological systems. In press.

Hinkel, J., D. Lincke, A. T. Vafeidis, M. Perrette, R. J. Nicholls, R. S. J. Tol, B. Marzeion, X. Fettweis, C. Ionescu, and A. Levermann (2014a). Coastal flood damage and adaptation cost under 21st century sea-level rise. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published ahead of print February 3, 2014. DOI: 10.1073/pnas. 1222469111.

Hinkel, J., P. Bots, and M. Schlüter (2014c). Enhancing the Ostrom social-ecological systems framework through formalization. In: Ecology and Society. Special Feature on the Ostrom (2009) framework for analysing social-ecological systems. In press.

Schlüter, M., J. Hinkel, P. Bots, and R. Arlinghaus (2014). Application of the Ostrom (2009) framework for model-based analysis of the dynamics of social-ecological systems. In: Ecology and Society. Special Feature on the Ostrom (2009) framework for analysing social-ecological systems. In press.

Arnell, N. W., J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, B. Lloyd-Hughes, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith, and R. F. Warren (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. In: Nature Clim. Change 3, pp. 512–519. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793.

Brown, S., R. Nicholls, J. Lowe, and J. Hinkel (2013b). Spatial variations in sea level rise and global impacts: An application of DIVA. In: Climatic Change. Published online. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y.

Hinkel, J., R. J. Nicholls, R. S. Tol, Z. B. Wang, J. M. Hamilton, G. Boot, A. T. Vafeidis, L. McFadden, A. Ganopolski, and R. J. Klein (2013a). A Global Analysis of Coastal Erosion of Beaches due to Sea-level Rise: An Application of DIVA. In: Global and Planetary Change 111. In press, pp. 150–158. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002.

Hinkel, J., D. P. van Vuuren, R. J. Nicholls, and R. J. T. Klein (2013b). The effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal impacts in the 21st century. In: Climatic Change 117, 783–794. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8.

Koerth, J., A. T. Vafeidis, J. Hinkel, and H. Sterr (2013). What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk? English. In: Regional Environmental Change, pp. 1–13. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-012-0399-x.

Wolf, S., J. Hinkel, C. Ionescu, M. Hofman, S. Bisaro, D. Linke, and R. J. T. Klein (2013). Clarifying vulnerability definitions and assessments using formalisation. In: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 5.1, pp. 54–70. DOI: 10.1108/17568691311299363.

Hinkel, J., S. Brown, L. Exner, R. J. Nicholls, A. T. Vafeidis, and A. S. Kebede (2012). Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. In: Regional Environmental Change 12, pp. 207–224. DOI: 10.1007/ s10113-011-0249-2.

Hinkel, J. (2011b). “Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity”: towards a clarification of the science policy interface. In: Global Environmental Change 21, pp. 198–208. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002.

Hofmann, M., J. Hinkel, and M. Wrobel (2011). Classifying knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in Europe for informing adaptation research and decision-making: a conceptual meta-analysis. In: Global Environmental Change 21, pp. 1106–1116. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.011.

Lass, W., A. Haas, J. Hinkel, and C. Jaeger (2011). Avoiding the Avoidable: Towards a European Heat Waves Risk Governance. In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2 (1), pp. 1–14. DOI: 10.1007/s13753-011-0001-z.

Nicholls, R. J., N. Marinova, J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmao, J. Hinkel, and R. S. J. Tol (2011b). Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a “beyond 4 degree world” in the 21st Century. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369, pp. 161–181. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.029.

Vuuren, D. P. van, M. Isaac, Z. W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, T. Barker, P. Criqui, F. Berkhout, H. Hilderink, J. Hinkel, A. Hof, A. Kitous, T. Kram, R. Mechler, and S. Scrieciu (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. In: Global Environmental Change 21, pp. 575–591. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003.

Bisaro, A., S. Wolf, and J. Hinkel (2010a). Framing climate vulnerability and adaptation at multiple levels: Addressing climate risks or institutional barriers in Lesotho. In: Climate and Development 2.2, pp. 161–175. DOI: doi:10.3763/cdev.2010. 0037.

Bisaro, A., J. Hinkel, and N. Kranz (2010b). Multilevel water, biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho. In: Environmental Science and Policy 13.7, pp. 637–647. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.08. 004.

Hinkel, J., R. J. Nicholls, A. Vafeidis, R. S. J. Tol, and T. Avagianou (2010). Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5.7, pp. 1–17. DOI: 10.1007/ s11027-010-9237-y.

Kranz, N., T. Menniken, and J. Hinkel (2010). Climate change adaptation strategies in the Mekong and Orange-Senqu basins: What determines the state-of-play? In: Environmental Science and Policy 13.7, pp. 648–659. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.09. 003.

Mcleod, E., B. Poulter, J. Hinkel, E. Reyes, and R. Salm (2010a). Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications. In: Ocean & Coastal Management 53, pp. 507–517. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010. 06.009.

Mcleod, E., J. Hinkel, A. T. Vafeidis, R. J. Nicholls, N. Harvey, and R. Salm (2010b). Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle. In: Sustainability Science 5.2, pp. 207–222. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-010-0105-1.

Miller, F., H. Osbahr, E. Boyd, F. Thomalla, S. Bharwani, G. Ziervogel, B. Walker, J. Birkmann, S. van der Leeuw, J. Rockström, J. Hinkel, T. Downing, C. Folke, and D. R. Nelson (2010). Resilience and Vulnerability: Complementary or conflicting concepts? In: Ecology and Society 15.3.

Hinkel, J. (2009). PIAM: A modular approach to integrated assessment modelling. In: Environmental Modelling and Software 24, pp. 739–748. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008. 11.005.

Hinkel, J. and R. J. T. Klein (2009). Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool. In: Global Environmental Change 19.3, pp. 384–395. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002.

Ionescu, C., R. J. T. Klein, J. Hinkel, K. S. K. Kumar, and R. Klein (2009). Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. In: Environmental Modelling and Assessment 14, pp. 1–16. DOI: DOI10.1007/s10666-008-9179-x.

Vafeidis, A. T., R. J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R. S. J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P. S. Grashoff, G. Boot, and R. J. T. Klein (2008). A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. In: Journal of Coastal Research 24.4, pp. 917–924. DOI: 10.2112/06-0725.

Warren, R., S. de la Nava Santos, N. W. Arnell, M. Bane, T. Barker, C. Barton, R. Ford, H.-M. Füssel, R. K. S. Hankin, R. Klein, C. Linstead, J. Kohler, T. D. Mitchell, T. J. Osborn, H. Pan, S. C. B. Raper, G. Riley, H. J. Schellnhuber, S. Winne, and D. Anderson (2008a). Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. In: Environmental Modelling & Software 23.5, pp. 592–610. DOI: doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.002.

Warren, R. et al. (2008b). Erratum to “Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change” [Environ Model Softw 23(5) (2008) 592–610]. In: Environmental Modelling & Software 23.9, pp. 1215–1216. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.015.

Hinkel, J. (2005a). DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models. In: Advances in Geosciences 4, pp. 45–50.

Bookchapters

Brown, S., R. J. Nicholls, C. D. Woodroffe, S. Hanson, J. Hinkel, A. S. Kebede, B. Neumann, and A. T. Vafeidis (2013a). Sea-level rise impact and responses: A global perspective. In: Coastal hazards. Ed. by C. Finkl. Springer, pp. 117–149.

Brown, S., R. J. Nicholls, A. K. Pardaens, J. A. Lowe, J. A. Vafeidis, J. Hinkel, and P. Watkiss (2012). Impacts & strategic responses to rising sea levels in the European Union. In: Comprehensive Flood Risk Management. Ed. by F. Klijn and T. Schweckendiek. London, UK: Talyor and Francis Group, pp. 1139–1147.

Hinkel, J. (2011a). Climate impacts: from numbers to stories. In: Reframing the Problem of Climate Change: From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions. Ed. by C. C. Jaeger, K. Hasselmann, G. Leipold, D. Mangalagiu, and J. D. Tabara. Oxford, UK and New York, USA & Canada: Earthscan, pp. 35–53.

Hinkel, J., S. Bisaro, T. Downing, M. E. Hofmann, K. Lonsdale, D. Mcevoy, and J. D. Tabara (2009). Learning to adapt. Narratives of decision makers adapting to climate change. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 113–134.

Neufeldt, H., E. Jochem, J. Hinkel, D. Huitema, E. Massey, P. Watkiss, D. McEvoy, T. Rayner, A. Hof, K. Lonsdale, T. Barker, A. Held, M. Hulme, U. Reiter, H. Turton, D. P. van Vuuren, and S. E. Werners (2009). Climate policy and inter-linkages between adaptation and mitigation. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 3–30.

Russel, D., A. Haxeltine, D. Huitema, M. Nilsson, J. Hinkel, and T. Rayner (2009). Climate change appraisal in the EU: current trends and future challenges. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 31–53.

Vuuren, D. P. van, M. Isaac, Z. W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, T. Barker, P. Criqui, N. Bauer, F. Berkhout, H. Hilderink, J. Hinkel, A. Hof, A. Kitous, T. Kram, R. Mechler, and S. Scrieciu (2009). Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Ed. by M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 54–86.

Hinkel, J. (2008a). A framework for analysing methodologies of vulnerability assessments. In: Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Ed. by A. G. Patt, D. Schröter, A. C. de la Vega-Leinert, and R. J. T. Klein. London, UK: Earthscan.

Klein, R. J. T. and J. Hinkel (2008). The DINAS-COAST project: developing a tool for the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. In: Environmental Vulnerability Assessment. Ed. by A. G. Patt, D. Schröter, A. C. de la Vega-Leinert, and R. J. T. Klein. London, UK: Earthscan.

Hinkel, J. and R. J. T. Klein (2007). Integrating knowledge for assessing coastal vulnerability. In: Managing Coastal Vulnerability. Ed. by L. M. Fadden, R. J. Nicholls, and E. Penning-Rowsell. London, UK: Earthscan, pp. 61–78.

Under review

Arnell, N. W., S. Brown, S. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. Lowe, R. Nicholls, T. Osborn, T. Osborne, G. Rose, P. Smith, T. Wheeler, and P. Zelazowski (2014a). A global-scale, multi-sectoral regional climate change risk assessment. Under review.

Hinkel, J. and A. Bisaro (2014a). A review and classification of methods for climate change adaptation. WIREs Climate Change. Under review.

— (2014b). Methodological choices in problem-oriented adaptation research: a diagnostic framework. Regional Environmental Change. Under reviewgmet.

Hinkel, J., C. Binder, M. Schlüter, M. Cox, and P. Bots (2014b). Comparative application of a framework for analysing social-ecological systems. Special Feature on the Ostrom (2009) framework for analysing social-ecological systems. Under review.

Koerth, J., A. Vafeidis, H. Sterr, J. Hinkel, A. Daschkeit, and S. Carretero (2014a). Anticipatory adaptation: How are coastal dwellers preparing for sea-level rise and climate related changes in storm surges? Under review.

Koerth, J., A. T. Vafeidis, J. Hinkel, and H. Sterr (2014b). Preserving the glorious view: A review of how and why coastal households adapt to flooding. Under Review.

Spencer, T., L. McFadden, R. J. Nicholls, A. T. Vafeidis, and J. Hinkel (2014). Broad-scale coastal wetland change and environmental forcing: the DIVA Wetland Change Model. In preparation.

Tonmoy, F., A. El-Zein, and J. Hinkel (2014). Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using indicators: a meta-analysis of the literature. WIREs Climate Change, under review.

Tuckett, D., A. Mandel, D. Mangalagiu, A. Abramson, J. Hinkel, K. Katsikopoulos, I. Kondor, T. Malleret, I. Mozetic, P. Ormerod, R. E. Smith, T. Venturini, and A. Wilkinson (2014). Uncertainty, Digital Sciences and Policy-Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda for the Policy Making Challenges after 2008. Under review.

Bisaro, A., J. Hinkel, and R. Swart. A synthesis of the MEDIATION case studies. Special Issue of Regional Environmental Change. Under review.

Koerth, J., J. Hinkel, S. Bisaro, A. T. Vafeidis, and H. Sterr. Taking on the challenge of household-level adaptation: A question of reliance on institutional capacity? Social dynamics of adaptation to a changing climate in coastal regions. an interdisciplinary perspective on findings from KLIMZUG-Projects. edited by Grit Martinez, Hans-Joachim Meier, Peter Fröhle, under review.

Events

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