A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model System (MADIAMS)


The MADIAMS model family

1. Overview

2. The MADIAMS model family

3. Model developers

4. Downloads

5. Publications

6. Acknowledgements

7. Links

8. Contact

 

 

1. Overview

The Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model System (MADIAMS) is an actor-based system dynamics model hierarchy to assess the impacts of climate mitigation policies. The evolution of the modeled closed economy is governed by the interactions of a few key aggregated actors (a firm, household, government, bank etc.) pursuing individual, often conflicting, goals. The economy is treated as a nonlinear system described by a set of system dynamics equations closed by the specification of the actors’ control strategies. An important feature of MADIAMS is the explicit treatment of non-equilibrium economic dynamics.
MADIAMS, its earlier versions and a number of other climate-economic models developed within an actor-based system dynamics approach jointly form the MADIAMS model family.

 

2. The MADIAMS model family

The MADIAMS model family currently includes, but is not limited to, the following models:

 

3. Model developers

MADIAMS is currently developed by:

Klaus Hasselmann, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M, Hamburg, Germany) / Global Climate Forum (GCF)

Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC, St. Petersburg, Russia) / Global Climate Forum (GCF)

Several earlier members of MADIAMS model family, including MADIAM, SDIAM and SDEM were developed by Klaus Hasselmann jointly with Volker Barth and Michael Weber.

 

4. Downloads

 

4.1. The North-South Euro crisis model (2015)

 

Brief description

The North-South Euro crisis model is a two-country (North-South) actor-based system dynamics model developed to assess the potential efficiency of external green investment for the resolution of the Euro crisis.

 

Reference

The model is described in detail in the paper:
Hasselmann, K., Cremades, R., Filatova, T., Hewitt, R., Jaeger, C., Kovalevsky, D., Voinov, A., Winder, N. (2015): Free-riders to fore-runners. Nature Geoscience. (Advance online publication – Published online 23 November 2015) [link]
and in the Supplementary information to the paper. (Advance online publication – Published online 23 November 2015) [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

 

Download

The North-South Euro crisis model can be downloaded here.
The model can be run in Vensim ® DSS simulation software, and also in the freely downloadable Vensim Model Reader. (Vensim Model Reader allows read-only access to models created with Vensim.)

 

Model developers

Klaus Hasselmann, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky

 

 

 

4.2.  The MADIAMS model (2013)

 

Brief description

The Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model System (MADIAMS) is an extension of an earlier version of MADIAM to account for out-of-equilibrium features of economic dynamics. The model addresses the dependence of economic growth and transformation on negotiated wage levels, the rate of investment in human capital (technological innovation), consumption versus savings preferences, government policies and various “animal spirit” (Keynes) processes.

 

Reference

The model is described in detail in the paper:
Hasselmann, K., Kovalevsky, D.V. (2013): Simulating animal spirits in actor-based environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 44, 10-24. [link]

 

Download

The second level of the three-level model hierarchy of MADIAMS – the model M2-hk.mdl (the main economic module of MADIAMS) and the supplementary stand-alone boom-and-bust cycle module Financial-7.mdl with documentation and model runs can be freely downloaded here.

 

Model developers

Klaus Hasselmann, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky

 

 

 

4.3.    The SDIAM model (2003)

 

Brief description

The Structural Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (SDIAM) is based on the highly aggregated economic growth model SDEM coupled to the NICCS [link to header of Sec. 4.4] climate model. One of the new approaches of SDIAM is the explicit consideration of diverging perceptions of welfare of entrepreneurs and society. This enables the rigorous assessment of climate protection measures from various alternative perspectives.

 

Reference

The model is described in detail in the PhD Thesis:
Barth, V. (2003): Integrated Assessment of climate change using structural dynamic models. PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg, 2003. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

 

Download

The model can be freely downloaded from the SDIAM homepage at Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg website.

 

Model developer

Volker Barth

 

 

 

4.4.    The NICCS climate model (2001)

 

Brief description

A Nonlinear Impulse-response model of the coupled Carbon cycle-Climate System (NICCS) is developed for the cost-efficient and accurate computation of regionalized climate change scenarios. NICCS was used as climate module in several models of the MADIAMS family, including MADIAM and SDIAM.

 

Reference

The model is described in detail in the paper:
Hooss, G., Voss, R., Hasselmann, K. , Maier-Reimer, E., Joos, F. (2001): A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system. Climate Dynamics, 18, 189-202. [link]

 

Download

The model can be freely downloaded from the NICCS homepage.

 

Model developer

Kurt Georg Hooss

 

 

5. Publications


Selected publications describing the actor-based system dynamics approach to economic modeling and the members of MADIAMS model family are listed below in inverse chronological order:

  1. Hasselmann, K., Cremades, R., Filatova, T., Hewitt, R., Jaeger, C., Kovalevsky, D., Voinov, A., Winder, N. (2015): Free-riders to fore-runners. Nature Geoscience. (Advance online publication – Published online 23 November 2015) [link]

  2. Kovalevsky, D.V., Hasselmann, K. (2014a): A hierarchy of out-of-equilibrium actor-based system-dynamic nonlinear economic models. Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity, 3, 303-318. [link]

  3. Kovalevsky, D.V., Hasselmann, K. (2014b): Assessing the transition to a low-carbon economy using actor-based system-dynamic models. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, 15-19 June 2014, San Diego, California, USA. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2, 1865-1872. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  4. Kovalevsky, D.V., Hasselmann, K. (2014c): Modelling the impacts of a national carbon tax in a country with inhomogeneous regional development: an actor-based system-dynamic approach. ERSA 54th Congress “Regional Development & Globalisation: Best Practices”, 26-29 August 2014, St. Petersburg State University (SPbSU), St. Petersburg, Russia. [Conference paper at IDEAS] [OPEN ACCESS]

  5. Kovalevsky, D.V., Hasselmann, K. (2014d): Integrated Assessment modelling of global impacts of shrinking Arctic sea ice. Proceedings of All-Russian conference with international participation “State of Arctic seas and territories under conditions of climate change”, 18-19 September 2014, Arkhangelsk, Russia, 79-80.

  6. Kovalevsky, D.V. (2014a): Balanced growth in the Structural Dynamic Economic Model SDEM-2. Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity, 3, 237-253. [link]

  7. Kovalevsky, D.V. (2014b): The Structural Dynamic Economic Model SDEM-2: from system dynamic solutions to linear and logarithmic utility maximization. Scientific Journal of KubSAU, No. 10(104). IDA [article ID]: 1041410011.

  8. Hasselmann, K. (2013): Detecting and responding to climate change. Tellus B, 65, 20088. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  9. Hasselmann, K., Kovalevsky, D.V. (2013): Simulating animal spirits in actor-based environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 44, 10-24. [link]

  10. Giupponi, C., Borsuk, M.E., de Vries, B.J.M., Hasselmann, K. (2013): Innovative approaches to integrated global change modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 44, 1-9. [link]

  11. Kovalevsky, D.V., Hasselmann, K. (2013): Out-of-equilibrium actor-based system-dynamic modeling of the economics of climate change. Workshop paper. GSS Preparatory Workshop for the 3rd Open Global Systems Science Conference (2014), 29-30 October 2013, Beijing, China. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  12. Kovalevsky, D.V. (2012): Optimal growth paths under different utility specifications, with application to the Structural Dynamic Economic Model SDEM-2. St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University Journal. Economics, No. 6(161), 188-192.

  13. Hasselmann, K., Voinov, A. (2011): The actor driven dynamics of decarbonization, pp. 131-159, in: Reframing the Problem of Climate Change. From Zero Sum Game to Win-Win Solutions. K. Hasselmann, C. Jaeger, G. Leipold, D. Mangalagiu, J.D. Tàbara (Eds.). Routledge, Earthscan, 272 pp., 2011. [link]

  14. Kovalevsky, D.V. (2011a): Macroeconomic dynamics modeled in SDEM-2: сan self-interested business prefer stagnation to growth? Business-Inform, No. 5(1), 14-17. <(Kovalevsky, 2011a)>

  15. Kovalevsky, D.V. (2011b): Deterministic and stochastic growth in the Structural Dynamic Economic Model SDEM-2. International Conference DEGIT-XVI (Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade), 08-09 September 2011, St. Petersburg State University (SPbSU), St. Petersburg, Russia. [Conference paper at IDEAS] [OPEN ACCESS]

  16. Hasselmann, K. (2010a): The climate change game. Nature Geoscience, 3, 511-512. [link]

  17. Hasselmann, K. (2010b): Application of system dynamics to climate policy assessment, pp. 203-208, in: Progress in Industrial Mathematics at ECMI 2008, A.D. Fitt, J. Norbury, H. Ockendon, E. Wilson (Eds.). Springer, 2010. [link]

  18. Hasselmann, K. (2009a): Simulating human behavior in macroeconomic models applied to climate change. ECF Working Paper 3/2009. (Also presented as background paper at 98th Dahlem Conference “Is There a Mathematics of Social Entities”, 14-19 December 2008, Berlin, Germany.) [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  19. Hasselmann, K. (2009b): What to do? Does science have a role? GSD-ECF Workshop on Agent Based Modeling for Sustainable Development, with an Illustration: Financial Crisis and Climate Policy, 02-03 April 2009, Venice, Italy. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  20. Hasselmann, K., Barker, T. (2008): The Stern Review and the IPCC fourth assessment report: implications for interaction between policymakers and climate experts. An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 89, 219-229. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  21. Jaeger, C.C., Krause, J., Haas, A., Klein, R., Hasselmann, K. (2008): A method for computing the fraction of attributable risk related to climate damages. Risk Analysis, 28, 815-823. [link]

  22. Barth, V., Hasselmann, K. (2005): Analysis of climate damage abatement costs using a dynamic economic model. Vierteljahresheft zur Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), 74(2), 148-163. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  23. Weber, M., Barth, V., Hasselmann, K. (2005): A multi-actor dynamic integrated assessment model (MADIAM) of induced technological change and sustainable economic growth. Ecological Economics, 54, 306-327. [link]

  24. Weber, M. (2004): A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM). PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg, 2004. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  25. Hasselmann, K., Latif, M. Hooss, G., Azar, C., Edenhofer, O., Jaeger, C.C., Johannessen, O.M., Kemfert, C., Welp, M., Wokaun, A. (2003): The challenge of long-term climate change. Science, 302, 1923-1925. [link]

  26. Barth, V. (2003): Integrated Assessment of climate change using structural dynamic models. PhD Thesis, University of Hamburg, 2003. [link] [OPEN ACCESS]

  27. Hooss, G., Voss, R., Hasselmann, K. , Maier-Reimer, E., Joos, F. (2001): A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system. Climate Dynamics, 18, 189-202. [link]

  28. Hasselmann, K. (1999): Intertemporal accounting of climate change - Harmonizing economic efficiency and climate stewardship. Climatic Change, 41, 333-350. [link]

  29. Hasselmann, K. (1997): Climate-change research after Kyoto. Nature, 390, 225-226. [link]

  30. Hasselmann, K., Hasselmann, S., Giering, R., Ocana, V., v. Storch, H. (1997): Sensitivity study of optimal CO2 emission paths using a simplified Structural Integrated Assessment Model (SIAM). Climatic Change, 37, 345-386. [link]

 

6. Acknowledgements

The development of the North-South Euro Crisis Model as presented on this webpage was supported by the collaborative project COMPLEX (“Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy”) within the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Development of the European Commission, grant agreement number 308601, and by the coordination and support action EuRuCAS (“European-Russian Centre for cooperation in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic environmental and climate research”) within the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Development of the European Commission, grant agreement number 295068.

The development of the version of MADIAMS M2-hk as presented on this webpage was supported by the networking project “Global System Dynamics and Policies” within the Future and Emerging Technologies (FET) Programme of the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Development of the European Commission under the FET-Open-Grant agreement GSD, number 221955. One of the model developers (Dmitry V. Kovalevsky) also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Nansen Scientific Society (Bergen, Norway) and of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 10-06-00238-a).

 

Klaus Hasselmann – personal homepage at MPI-M website, at GCF website.

Kovalevsky, D.V. Addressing positive feedbacks and impacts of abrupt climate change in actor-based system dynamics Integrated Assessment models. KlimaCampus Colloquium. 09 April 2015, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. Video of the lecture on actor-based system dynamics modelling.

 

 

8. Contact

Comments on MADIAMS are most warmly welcome.
All feedback on the model should be sent either to

Dmitry V Kovalevsky
e-mail: dmitry.kovalevsky(at)niersc.spb.ru

or

Prof. Klaus Hasselmann 
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,
Bundesstraße 53,
20146 Hamburg, Germany

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